Predict Election

Trump built national momentum by winning states including Florida, Ohio. PREDICTIONS FOR 2010 Prepare for the Era of Explosive History. Phil: And that means it is time for us to put up or shut up. The 2018 elections, thus, have the potential to open up politics in urban parts of the province if other parties are able to translate the reduced support for the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), as. 2020 Election Forecast We think the 2020 presidential race leans toward Democrat Joe Biden as the favorite. 2020 Election analysis. Here are the top elections to watch in Africa and predictions for 2020. The 2020 US Presidential election is considered to be the most important election of modern times. Sir John is the man who predicted Brexit and has been in charge of the accurate exit polls in the recent elections in 2015 and 2017. The question of whether Internet searches can predict election outcomes is one of great debate, for obvious reasons. It is hard to see how anything good, or different, will come from Mali’s election on 29 July. As 2019 wrapped up Karl Rove penned his annual predictions column, which reviewed how correct he was last year, and put in writing his thoughts on what he believes will happen with the John Durham. Founded by Turkish immigrants, the party may gain representation in parliament for the first time. Grid lock again. outcome variable, probability of victory in state-by-state elections, while also solving for the. Polls are wildly inaccurate as you noted. 224,500 tweets, associated with the two most. Nomination 31 Markets. Here are the expected margins of victory. Another Simpsons -related prediction theory was floated on 9 November 2016, a day after Trump won the presidential election, holding that the show had correctly predicted the 2016 electoral vote map:. If the neocons should win this election and retain control of congress, it would set an appalling precedent for future generations. For the Republican primaries, 29 elections were analyzed and Google Trends correctly predicted only about half (the data wasn’t as good for a variety of reasons). However, after video footage of his prophetic revelation resurfaced, three more major predictions involving the wall and the 2020 election are shocking listeners. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Predictions are based on recent past election results those are analyzed logically. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2. The Star's leading politics reporters cover Election Canada 2019. Final Election Predictions, Last-Minute Political Humor, and a Silver Lining to the Dark Cloud of 2016 November 8, 2016 by Dan Mitchell The bad news is that America is about to elect a statist president. By Caroline Thorpe. Surveys serve as snapshots of the state of a race, not predictions of the final results. Table 1 reports the breakdown of respondents by their respective roles, whilst also highlighting the number of individuals who provided predictions of Conservative and Labour vote share and/or the number of seats in. ES makes no predictions but offers up a very detailed election primer. In general, poll-based predictions become more accurate as the election approaches since there is less time for unexpected events ( like a natural disaster, a revelation about a candidate’s past, or some stupid statement by a candidate or a major supporter) to affect voter’s attitudes and the outcome. Democrats attempting to enter it had been repelled by supporters of the American Party, better known as. The first one shows what the results will look like on election night, according to Hawkfish’s prediction. Aside from the polls, which can vary widely depending on the voter models and pollster weighting, we can also look at election models that create forecasts based on various data points. However, this. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed it into a web page. Below, you can see our map of the predicted results. "I Wanted to Predict Elections with Twitter and all I got was this Lousy Paper" -- A Balanced Survey on Election Prediction using Twitter Data. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. So, perhaps, in the end, the 1976 election shows that even if eleventh-hour vice presidential selections hinge on factors that are impossible to predict in advance, the types of candidates who. predictor synonyms, predictor pronunciation, predictor translation, English dictionary definition of predictor. Fionnuala O'Leary Today, 20:50. This should be prediction markets’ moment to shine. Or you could consult the real experts: a billy goat, a monkey, and two. The 2020 US presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The polls do not look good for him. The upcoming election has also focused on the question of immigration. Joe Biden will face Donald Trump in a contest which will be cruel. Yourbaselineshould notbe chancebut predictingthe in-cumbent. But he's also leading by another measure: Biden is ahead in the 13 election "keys" co-created by American University history professor Allan Lichtman, who says this formula has called every election since 1984. This post represents my official final prediction for the 2016 presidential election using my experimental model based upon bayesian analysis. The blue wave is going to hit with a vengeance in Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to pollsters who say Democrats should easily capture the 23 seats they need to regain control of the House. Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion 2020 U. NOAA / National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Storm Prediction Center 120 David L. The first one shows what the results will look like on election night, according to Hawkfish’s prediction. (KLTV) - The chances that President Donald Trump wins re-election in 2020 is near certain, according to a political science professor whose election model has a history of correctly predicting. Some bloggers put updates at the top, so everything is reverse chronology. Donald Trump to win US Presidential Election 2020. Fantasy Role Playing Elites Predict Post-Election Darkness Across the Land A group of 'wargaming' Never-Trumpers and Democrats say the president is going full-on dictator after a Nov. While both obviously called a Romney win, the first one predicted a landslide — 359 electoral votes, even larger than Barone’s — the second, more sober assessment called a more modest 275. It is useful if you are interested in contingent odds, and it also weights odds by liquidity. In: Sentiment Analysis where AI meets Psychology (SAAIP) Workshop at the International Joint Conference for Natural Language Processing (IJCNLP), 13th November 2011, Chiang Mai, Thailand. The 2017 election saw the electorate sorted back into two large party groups. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. have to be at least a little bit worried about a scenario in which Donald Trump loses the election and then petulantly decides to shut down the government in response. The 2020 presidential election odds tells a different story. But his chariot came and. An Artificial Intelligence system called MogIA called it for Trump as well. Count on de. Allan has used the keys to accurately predict every election. We really haven’t seen much in the way of positive economic data to justify the rally over the last week. Maureen Groppe Sarah Elbeshbishi. I offer nothing, but I still encourage readers to make their predictions in the comments section bellow. “President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his. My predictions were very much at the lower end of those estimates yet. Oxford Economics released its report Wednesday […]. Prediction that California Will Have Recall Election for Governor in 2020 Brian Wang | October 28, 2019 | Nextbigfuture predicts that the efforts to recall California Governor Newsom will succeed in getting over 1. Bernie Sanders warned Americans that the 2020 election could result in a “nightmarish scenario” of President Trump discrediting mail-in voting and refusing to leave office, but Fox News. State election odds update every 20 minutes. Officials seek thousands of poll workers ahead of Election Day, fear shortage due to COVID-19 The pandemic has made recruitment "an even bigger concern," one expert said. It appears to be the most one-sided result since 1988, in Mr Trump’s favour. Other years, it is not. "I Wanted to Predict Elections with Twitter and all I got was this Lousy Paper" -- A Balanced Survey on Election Prediction using Twitter Data. Code for a dynamic multilevel Bayesian model to predict US presidential elections. 2020 Forecasted electoral votes earned by U. We are really ready for this presidential election to be over. There are elections virtually all the time, thus, if you are claiming you have a prediction method you should predict an election in the future! 2. 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Odds, Predictions & Tips Matt Schmitto February 27, 2020 June 4, 2020 With the Democratic primary race heating up, the 2020 U. How a spate of shark attacks in 1916 might predict how the new coronavirus outbreak will affect Trump’s re-election chances By Michael A. What at all is wrong with some Ghanaian prophets and mallams who are only best at predicting election results and the death of celebrities but are unable to predict pandemics that come to kill many people and ground the world economy as it is with the current novel coronavirus (Covid-19)? In most cases, their prophecies are conditional hence such prophets and mallams coming across as false. See full list on fidelity. Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Nov 1st 2019: Added new Additive Model which uses simple Uniform National Swing assumption for Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats. The place for head-to-head campaign finance comparisons of candidates in every U. In the 77 cases in which the intention and expectation question predict different candidates, the expectation question picks the winner 60 times, while the intention question only picked the. Founded by Turkish immigrants, the party may gain representation in parliament for the first time. Sir John is the man who predicted Brexit and has been in charge of the accurate exit polls in the recent elections in 2015 and 2017. Mark Hulbert Opinion: This spot-on predictor of who will win the 2020 presidential election is not the stock market or even opinion polls Published: July 11, 2020 at 2:01 p. Predictions. In Northern Ireland, changes to the 3 seats in play there are unlikely. 2012 Presidential Election Predictions The OTB gang give their best guess at the outcome of the 2012 presidential contest. Bernie Sanders warned Americans that the 2020 election could result in a “nightmarish scenario” of President Trump discrediting mail-in voting and refusing to leave office, but Fox News. IF YOU believed the pollsters, America. We really haven’t seen much in the way of positive economic data to justify the rally over the last week. Early 2020 election predictions. Our election-forecasting machine uses all the latest national and constituency polls to predict the election. Government World Prez. Prediction markets have failed to predict recent upsets such as the Brexit vote in the UK and the. Key Research Poll General Election Predictions Posted on October 22, 2012 by Quin Monson Don’t go to bed early on election night if you’re interested in the outcome of the Love/Matheson race. Phil: And that means it is time for us to put up or shut up. Ethan: Election Day! Although, it is a little weird having it in July. used the United States election in 2016 as the source data from Twitter. by unbeatenmueez(m): 11:17pm On Jan 02, 2015 God only knows the result ahead in every state of Nigeria. The paper addresses the most relevant. The first one shows what the results will look like on election night, according to Hawkfish’s prediction. Most candidates leading at this stage of the campaign go on to win, especially when they’re facing off against an incumbent president. TRUMP WEIGHS IN ON COCKTAIL CLOWN. Clairvoyant/Psychic predictions about USA Midterm elections 2018, US Election 2016, President Donald Trump, Trump Impeachment, Republican Party and more…. I have a lot of stuff to get through, so let's go. A project of Victoria University of Wellington, PredictIt has been established to facilitate research into the way markets forecast events. Given how wrong traditional pollsters and pundits were in predicting the outcome of the 2016 […]. The Labour led Government of Jacinda Ardern have made tiny baby steps towards being transformative but beyond tinkering have not been able to pursue a more progressive policy platform, however in crisis, Jacinda Ardern has shone and stepped up with a level of leadership that now sees her Party enjoying an outright majority. Turnout is simply too uncertain for me to predict a D5 winner. So who do the current numbers suggest will become the 45 th President of the United States? Twitter recently released a new "Election 2016 Candidate Buzz" tracker which can provide this data for us. Tarot; Climate change; Prediction and Intuition; Contact. Table 1 reports the breakdown of respondents by their respective roles, whilst also highlighting the number of individuals who provided predictions of Conservative and Labour vote share and/or the number of seats in. Local By-Elections - 2 Viewing. The state’s political landscape, however, is witnessing a sea change in 2017, making the elections complicated for pollsters to predict. The map below assumes Obama holds all the states Kerry won in 2004 except New Hampshire and picks up Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado resulting both McCain. Or let your computer predict Trump winning, while you predict that the establishment won’t let it happen. A New Study Says Twitter Can Predict US Elections. Read about the latest political betting odds and tips here at Betting. Electoral Predictions using Twitter Data 1. Key Research Poll General Election Predictions Posted on October 22, 2012 by Quin Monson Don’t go to bed early on election night if you’re interested in the outcome of the Love/Matheson race. Define predictor. It’s a winter election, and called to preempt what would have been a likely government defeat in a confidence motion on minister for health, Simon Harris. Election stock markets function like other futures exchanges, such as commodity exchanges for the future delivery of grain, livestock, or precious metals. Search that contributed to the model's first incorrect election prediction," wrote. Massachusetts held elections on Tuesday, and while the incumbent members of Congress held on there, the 2020 primaries overall have been rough on incumbents. As elections are 10 months away and things and perception can change in any direction. But he's also leading by another measure: Biden is ahead in the 13 election "keys" co-created by American University history professor Allan Lichtman, who says this formula has called every election since 1984. Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Here’s what he said. I see him as if he is in a mansion or a building with big gardens surrounding it. bookmaking firm Paddy Power said: “Over the past week, Mr. "Taking into account the Sinn Fein surge in recent Assembly election we were surprised the seat predictor model didn’t predict Sinn Fein for Fermanagh and South Tyrone at 60% plus. The Gargoyle: 2015 election predictions, riding by riding Back to video. Customarily, in an election year, that means "until mid-December," an arrangement that avoids rocking the boat prior to Election Day. Many predict a Trump Landslide (Fusion; Zero Hedge; WND- Joseph Farah). 20 strategists predict the U. Members of the Public Echoes of Rhetoric in America Project, who work to study how the public responds to political messages, released two projections for the Iowa caucus and New. His predictions focus on issues voters care about, rather than relying on recent polling data. The index gained 6. So who do the current numbers suggest will become the 45 th President of the United States? Twitter recently released a new "Election 2016 Candidate Buzz" tracker which can provide this data for us. Source: PredictWise Time peri­od: June 09, 2016 Data ex­trac­ted on: June 09, 2016. TRUMP WEIGHS IN ON COCKTAIL CLOWN. Online; Articles. The presidential forecast can change, and between June 3 and November, likely will change. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. They are the authors of three of the nine forecast models that appeared in an election-themed symposium in the October 2008…. Landslide victory for the SLPP and whitewash for UNP and Janabalawegaya and demise and disaster for Communal parties in this country Posted on August 7th, 2020. This is the high water mark for Joe Biden, and it will all be down hill from today. Discussion of local authority by-elections. 2011 Fall predictions The following maps are my final projections for the 5 provincial elections that occurred last Fall (2011). will land in a good position. On Wednesday evening at 10 p. Upcoming Elections, Election news, deadlines and meetings. The Democrat Obama has been office 2 terms, and usually this means the next president will be a Republican. 2020 Election Predictions in America The arrangement of this list is based on the poll result conducted by www. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday got personal in attacking President Trump — going so far as to draw his sister into the fray — before daring the president to bet with him over whether he can. The NY Times' "Upshot" uses the "PredictWise" average. This is an update to the vice presidential election vote recount prediction issued in January 2018. The United States Institute of Peace has denied predicting victory for President Muhammadu Buhari in the 2019 General Election in Nigeria. TRUMP WEIGHS IN ON COCKTAIL CLOWN. Government World Dem. Election Night 2016 told through the words of more than 20 journalists who were in the field, in the newsrooms, at the anchor desks, and in the control rooms, watching Donald Trump's stunning win. Nomination Congress State & Local U. 'We are stuck here': Stephanie is helping put food on your plate and hasn't seen her kids in nearly a year. Does the stock market predict the winner of U. 9% in the three. presidential election — and how stocks will react Published Mon, Aug 24 2020 12:59 AM EDT Updated Tue, Aug 25 2020 5:29 AM EDT Tanvir Gill. I have my election blog post ready to post, so I will be doing that shortly. [email protected] When the S&P 500 failed to predict presidential election outcomes. Singh went on further to say that Trump will do his best to postponed the US…. Simple R code to take predicted vote shares for Cons, Lab, LDs, and Brexit and change assumptions about connection to constituency Brexit vote. ORCID: 0000-0003-1028-8389 (2011) On using Twitter to monitor political sentiment and predict election results. All 435 seats were up for election. Sort By: Trade Volume. Election Dem. The professor famous for accurately predicting the winner of every presidential election since 1984 has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump. 26, 69 days ahead of Election Day, 460,894 people had requested absentee ballots, the N. Election 2020 Primary – Results, Polls, Predictions and More Running count, polls and betting odds for the 2020 Democratic Primary - LIVE UPDATES. In: Sentiment Analysis where AI meets Psychology (SAAIP) Workshop at the International Joint Conference for Natural Language Processing (IJCNLP), 13th November 2011, Chiang Mai, Thailand. Or you could consult the real experts: a billy goat, a monkey, and two. Find out how your views compare to Australian political parties’ policies by using Vote Compass for the 2019 Federal Election. The Times has identified these states in play — shown below in gray — based on polling data and other factors, and we'll update the list from time to time as polls shift. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday got personal in attacking President Trump — going so far as to draw his sister into the fray — before daring the president to bet with him over whether he can. Given how wrong traditional pollsters and pundits were in predicting the outcome of the 2016 …. Government World Dem. The team of researchers behind the study set out to design a new predictive model based on information gathered from previous elections, and when the algorithm was applied to real-world, real-time. Today Harry. Local By-Elections - 2 Viewing. 10, 2011, since Hermain Cain suspended his campaign after. Turnout in 2018 was the. Election stock markets function like other futures exchanges, such as commodity exchanges for the future delivery of grain, livestock, or precious metals. But today I’m issuing a blockbuster election prediction that might shock you. Shaheen UNH* Shaheen 54, Messner 36 Shaheen +18 North Carolina Governor - Forest. The survey also suggests that a major change may take place in Sindh’s urban areas where it is difficult to predict the victory of any party. It's how the people of Delaware vote in the primaries, or is that Iowa? I really don't think there is a good predictor of how the election will turn out. used the United States election in 2016 as the source data from Twitter. Mulan’s Disney+ release is reigniting a boycott movement. Surveys serve as snapshots of the state of a race, not predictions of the final results. 2008 US presidential elections accuracy Barack Obama BetFair Betting betting exchanges betting markets CFTC Collective Forecasting collective intelligence corporate prediction markets enterprise prediction markets event derivative exchanges event derivative markets event derivatives Finance financial markets Forecasting Gambling Google HubDub. And if they live in poor, Black or Hispanic neighborhoods, they not only have a longer line to wait in, everything is being done to literally stop them from casting a ballot. The 2020 Map Begins with Florida In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by roughly three million people but won 304 electoral votes and the presidency. Professionals. On Friday, county election offices are going to start mailing ballots to voters who requested to vote by mail instead of in person. It's even harder than usual to predict voter turnout. In these markets, traders buy and sell contracts tied to real-world events — like elections. The Democrat Obama has been office 2 terms, and usually this means the next president will be a Republican. Last updated: 9:02PM EDT on Sep 04, 2020 Over $1 million bet. How Northern Ireland will vote: Election 2019 predictions More than 50,000 additional people on North’s electoral register may have crucial say Tue, Dec 10, 2019, 20:08. The 1936 presidential election proved a decisive battle, not only in shaping the nation’s political future but for the future of opinion polling. Follow our US election 2020 blog below for all the latest on the Trump vs Biden race. Early 2020 election predictions. British Politics Betting Odds. In general, poll-based predictions become more accurate as the election approaches since there is less time for unexpected events ( like a natural disaster, a revelation about a candidate’s past, or some stupid statement by a candidate or a major supporter) to affect voter’s attitudes and the outcome. I see him as if he is in a mansion or a building with big gardens surrounding it. ‘The Simpsons’ Addresses Trump Election Prediction in Chalkboard Gag “Being right sucks,” Bart Simpson writes in reference to prognostication from 2000 episode. Track your candidate using our interactive, live election maps and infographics. senatorial elections by generating, and then combining, forecasts based on voter intention. (KLTV) - The chances that President Donald Trump wins re-election in 2020 is near certain, according to a political science professor whose election model has a history of correctly predicting. For the Republican primaries, 29 elections were analyzed and Google Trends correctly predicted only about half (the data wasn’t as good for a variety of reasons). Exclusive: More Americans predict Trump will win the presidential debates than Biden, USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows. Is the caucus an accurate predictor? Historically. He has the full support of his party behind him. Yourbaselineshould notbe chancebut predictingthe in-cumbent. This BLOG is showing some predictions of 42 Loksabha seats of WEST BENGAL for 2014 election. "I Wanted to Predict Elections with Twitter and all I got was this Lousy Paper" -- A Balanced Survey on Election Prediction using Twitter Data. The low response rate might partially be attributed to the failures of prior surveys to accurately predict election outcomes. PollingReport. All exit polls released at the conclusion of the seven-phase 17th general election predicted a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Jason Markusoff profiles 10 ridings to watch and offers a free coffee to any readers predicting 9 of 10 correctly. This is an update to the vice presidential election vote recount prediction issued in January 2018. It is useful if you are interested in contingent odds, and it also weights odds by liquidity. We use all the polls that have released to give a bigger-picture view of where the parties are standing, who will win each electorate and the prospects of various coalition scenarios. In 1988, calling it in spring when. Is the caucus an accurate predictor? Historically. The polls do not look good for him. Betting is from PredictIt. 9% in the three. general election. ) and a prolific fundraiser. Our algorithm was designed in. The peace accord, signed amid great fanfare in 2015, has. General elections will be held in December 2020 for the presidential office. The map below assumes Obama holds all the states Kerry won in 2004 except New Hampshire and picks up Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado resulting both McCain. According to the Daily Caller, Democratic political strategist James Carville made a head turning 2020 prediction stating that President Donald Trump has “zero” chance of getting reelected. 8 comments. Some key points from our most up-to-date predictions: (D-Ariz. Sure, you could constantly refresh FiveThirtyEight to get a prediction of who will win the presidential election Tuesday. November 3, 2020—Election Day The voters in each State choose electors to serve in the Electoral College. You can explore the relative size of their contributions, the top industries and interest groups supporting them. Compulsory voting and the required allocation of preferences ameliorate two big variables: turnout and. Exclusive: More Americans predict Trump will win the presidential debates than Biden, USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows. In the 77 cases in which the intention and expectation question predict different candidates, the expectation question picks the winner 60 times, while the intention question only picked the. 2016 election predictions were wrong,. 26, 69 days ahead of Election Day, 460,894 people had requested absentee ballots, the N. Steve Vancore, partner at VancoreJones, leapt right into the “dangerous business” of predicting the mid. “The young lion will overcome the older one, On the field of combat in a single battle;. Election Dem. The economic fallout of a Donald Trump presidency will probably be severe and widespread enough to plunge the world into recession, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman warned in a New York Times opinion piece. Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion 2020 U. Election 2016: My Prediction vs. 2016 Election Forecast. 1952: Television makes its first foray into predicting a presidential election based on computer analysis of early returns. I have my election blog post ready to post, so I will be doing that shortly. “There is no chance he’s gonna be reelected,” Carville …. Key Research Poll General Election Predictions Posted on October 22, 2012 by Quin Monson Don’t go to bed early on election night if you’re interested in the outcome of the Love/Matheson race. 9% in the three. The Rasmussen poll has Trump at 45 percent, about 5 percent higher than the gold-standard RealClearPolitics average of 40 percent — analogous to the Election Day outlier and often-scoffed-at. The Primary Model is a statistical algorithm that uses presidential primaries as the key predictor of the general election. Yahoo hack could thwart deal with Verizon. Click a state until it turns to your choice: Democratic, Republican or back to contested. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. Exclusive: More Americans predict Trump will win the presidential debates than Biden, USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows. An Artificial Intelligence system called MogIA called it for Trump as well. It appears to be the most one-sided result since 1988, in Mr Trump’s favour. Voters leave a polling station after voting in the Michigan primary election in Detroit, Michigan, January 15, 2008. The index gained 6. Early 2020 election predictions. Why researchers say lawn signs could help predict election results If you really want to know who will win the upcoming election, just look at the signs in your neighbourhood, say Calgary-based. 2020 Democratic nominee? Joe Biden 97¢ NC. Donald Trump 2020 prediction: Bible scholar predicts landslide win and 'golden age' for US DONALD TRUMP will win the 2020 US election and follow through with a "golden age" of economic prosperity. Our interactive presidential election map is currently based on the consensus of the following forecasts: Cook Political Report, July 24, 2020; Inside Elections, July 17, 2020; Harry Enten, "Texas is a Swing State", July 11, 2020; Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, June 25, 2020; Bitecofer Model, March 24, 2020 We also use the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics and. Five Thirty Eight’s “now-cast,” which tracks real-time election polling data and attempts to predict the outcome if the election were held now, “can overreact to small swings in the polls. So, I decided to try my hand at it this year. senatorial elections by generating, and then combining, forecasts based on voter intention. ES makes no predictions but offers up a very detailed election primer. polling, fundamental data, and prediction markets. History shifted into the Aquarian Age of change in 2008. Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted every election since 1984, using a model he developed alongside Soviet. When Bing users search for information related to political campaigns, for instance, Bing Predicts, a prediction engine embedded in the search tool, drives several features associated with Bing’s election experience. The 1936 presidential election proved a decisive battle, not only in shaping the nation’s political future but for the future of opinion polling. After the Allied victory in Europe, many observers incorrectly predicted that Churchill would be named prime minister. In 1988, calling it in spring when. After virtually every prediction based on polling managed to miss the 2016 presidential election, I figured "I could do a better job!". Given how wrong traditional pollsters and pundits were in predicting the outcome of the 2016 …. General elections 2019: What do exit polls predict? Exit polls predict second term for PM Narendra Modi Varghese K George New Delhi, May 20, 2019 01:00 IST Updated: May 20, 2019 17:27 IST. Delhi Election Exit Poll Results 2020 Updates: Confident of majority govt, says Manish Sisodia after exit polls predict AAP sweep, party set to win 55-68 seats Delhi Exit Poll Results 2020 LIVE Updates: Delhi deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia was quoted by India Today as saying that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will get a 'majority government. Here are mine: –Romney will win the electoral college with at least 273 votes (270 needed to win). Is the caucus an accurate predictor? Historically. Exclusive: More Americans predict Trump will win the presidential debates than Biden, USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows. View all available outright and match odds, plus get news, tips, free bets and money-back offers. Check the degree of influence incumbency plays in the elections you are tryingto predict. 9%: Provincial Election - British Columbia - May 9, 2017. Key Research Poll General Election Predictions Posted on October 22, 2012 by Quin Monson Don’t go to bed early on election night if you’re interested in the outcome of the Love/Matheson race. Election Night 2016 told through the words of more than 20 journalists who were in the field, in the newsrooms, at the anchor desks, and in the control rooms, watching Donald Trump's stunning win. Chambers, the proprietor of the famous “correcting biased polls” UnskewedPolls. TRUMP WEIGHS IN ON COCKTAIL CLOWN. 13% of the vote. Sure, nailing Jell-O to the wall probably has more reason and science behind it, but we here at "The Steve Deace Show" still decided to celebrate the one-year pre-anniversary of Election 2020 by trying to predict what next year's state-by-state outcome will look like. model was originally used to predict the 2016 election, but later it was applied to the poll data for 2008 and 2012. Singh has predicted that Trump will not be re-elected in November 2020. Exclusive: More Americans predict Trump will win the presidential debates than Biden, USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows. Jan 2nd 2016. Our algorithm was designed in. Phil: And that means it is time for us to put up or shut up. The 2020 Map Begins with Florida In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by roughly three million people but won 304 electoral votes and the presidency. As surebet is easy to contemplate and predict so is the forthcoming election as U stated?. It gets heavily hit in the elections, and does not have the power it needs. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2020 election forecast. Additionally, there were three special elections to fill the final two months of vacancies that were created during the 114th United States Congress. According to the Daily Caller, Democratic political strategist James Carville made a head turning 2020 prediction stating that President Donald Trump has “zero” chance of getting reelected. 2012 Election Prediction From Conservative Author Dr. In 1988, calling it in spring when. Published 11/19/2019 5:00 PM EST Updated 7/6/2020 9:00 AM EDT. 2020 Forecasted electoral votes earned by U. UK Election Maps - Current Parliament - Home. The Univac computer makes an amazingly accurate projection that the. So we are now 101 days until the 2020 NZ Election due on September 19th. The main purpose of an election stock market is to predict the election outcome, such as the share of the popular vote or share of seats each political party receives in a legislature or. Polling problems — Election polls aren’t broken, but they still can’t predict the future Swing voters, skewed samples, and more have always limited the ability to pick a winner. This 2019 race is a special election. 2012 Election Prediction From Conservative Author Dr. Reagan and Clinton, -1million when running for re-election. The peace accord, signed amid great fanfare in 2015, has. The presidential forecast can change, and between June 3 and November, likely will change. model was originally used to predict the 2016 election, but later it was applied to the poll data for 2008 and 2012. Walter Williams-Fiction!Summary of eRumor: This is an article, allegedly written by syndicated columnist Dr. 'We are stuck here': Stephanie is helping put food on your plate and hasn't seen her kids in nearly a year. However, we can only give you our prediction of the state of the race right now. Yahoo hack could thwart deal with Verizon. Government World Dem. I have a lot of stuff to get through, so let's go. Mail-in ballots. The first one shows what the results will look like on election night, according to Hawkfish’s prediction. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. Trump declared, “this is going to be the greatest election. It’s a statistical technique used to predict election results, among other things. Bernie Sanders warned Americans that the 2020 election could result in a “nightmarish scenario” of President Trump discrediting mail-in voting and refusing to leave office, but Fox News. 20 strategists predict the U. com 2019 Election Nowcast Predict 2024. general election. Ryan Detrick from LPL Financial made my Chart o’ the Day today… Here’s Ryan: Turns out, since 1928, the stock market has accurately predicted the winner of the election 87% of the time and every single year since 1984. com for news and analysis of the Canadian federal election. A nonpartisan resource on trends in American public opinion. Of the policies put forward by Labour in the 2019 general election, readers said the party should continue to support the following:. American University. Abstract: Compared with real-world polling, election prediction based on social media can be far more timely and cost-effective due to the immediate availability of fast evolving Web contents. Iain Dale presents the evening show on LBC Radio and is a commentator for CNN. For the 2010 general election result all parties are shown plus the one independent (Sylvia Hermon). We can connect a particular word to a news story by its timing: if it rises quickly to the top of our lookup list immediately after a candidate used the word during a debate, for example, we can report it with confidence. I’m not doing it. In taking a look at both elections, I feel I have a way to identify any abnormal riding results, and account for this in my predictions. Five Thirty Eight’s “now-cast,” which tracks real-time election polling data and attempts to predict the outcome if the election were held now, “can overreact to small swings in the polls. IF YOU believed the pollsters, America. News from Mali just keeps getting worse. Written in R and Stan. Mulan’s Disney+ release is reigniting a boycott movement. It is necessary to know that in 2014, the Narendra Modi, who came to the politics of the Central Government by an overwhelming majority, won almost all the Assembly Elections. 20 strategists predict the U. Maureen Groppe Sarah Elbeshbishi. Posted on May 22, 2020May 26, 2020byCian Byrne's Blog. bookmaking firm Paddy Power said: “Over the past week, Mr. But his chariot came and. Fionnuala O'Leary Today, 20:50. The Times has identified these states in play — shown below in gray — based on polling data and other factors, and we'll update the list from time to time as polls shift. Or let your computer predict Trump winning, while you predict that the establishment won’t let it happen. Exclusive: More Americans predict Trump will win the presidential debates than Biden, USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows. Get a Reading or Send Message; Getting a Reading with. Surveys serve as snapshots of the state of a race, not predictions of the final results. Posted 2 years ago by Press Release. Source: PredictWise Time peri­od: June 09, 2016 Data ex­trac­ted on: June 09, 2016. While weekend headlines buzzed over the prediction of an asteroid hitting Earth on November 2, just one day before the US presidential election, in reality, this is one thing we don’t have to. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2. Singh went on further to say that Trump will do his best to postponed the US…. PREDICTIONS FOR 2010 Prepare for the Era of Explosive History. In about 60 days, Americans will vote in a presidential election both sides consider pivotal for the country’s future amid a pandemic, civil unrest and the highest unemployment levels in a generation. This is our first presidential election since Electionarium was founded in 2017. The model provided close estimates of the nal results but there is im-. There are 28 parties contesting the election but only half of them are likely to get enough votes to win seats. Trump is up +4 million in 2020 compared to 2016. 224,500 tweets, associated with the two most. ) and a prolific fundraiser. History shifted into the Aquarian Age of change in 2008. Republican Donald Trump has won the 2016 presidential election, in a stunning upset victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton. What an election campaign. He has the full support of his party behind him. While weekend headlines buzzed over the prediction of an asteroid hitting Earth on November 2, just one day before the US presidential election, in reality, this is one thing we don’t have to. The Primary Model is a statistical algorithm that uses presidential primaries as the key predictor of the general election. (After you control for a lot. Labeled as analysis in Domain Industry News, started by Michael Ehrhardt, Sep 2, 2020 at 5:28 AM. In 2020, we predict that marketers will build on efforts to engage with existing customers while navigating through murky economic periods by shifting marketing budgets and managing marketing costs. In taking a look at both elections, I feel I have a way to identify any abnormal riding results, and account for this in my predictions. Government World Prez. Deval Patrick to win US Presidential Election 2020. Source: PredictWise Time peri­od: June 09, 2016 Data ex­trac­ted on: June 09, 2016. Reagan and Clinton, -1million when running for re-election. Online; Articles. State election odds update every 20 minutes. This is the difference. Election Night 2016 told through the words of more than 20 journalists who were in the field, in the newsrooms, at the anchor desks, and in the control rooms, watching Donald Trump's stunning win. This is an update to the vice presidential election vote recount prediction issued in January 2018. All 435 seats were up for election. Brown cannot win without a strong turnout among the former; Preston requires at least a decent turnout among the latter. Experts predict record voter turnout in 2020, but will it materialize? Voters wait to vote during the midterm elections in Hillsboro, Virginia on November 6, 2018. Government World Dem. Researchers for the Graduate School of Political Management have developed a model to predict the outcomes of each contest during the 2020 Democratic primaries. Follow our US election 2020 blog below for all the latest on the Trump vs Biden race. (KLTV) - The chances that President Donald Trump wins re-election in 2020 is near certain, according to a political science professor whose election model has a history of correctly predicting. President Donald Trump made an ominous prediction as he raged against mail-in voting Friday afternoon during a Q&A with reporters. A lot can happen in three months. In our prediction markets, the ultimate values of the contracts being traded are based on the outcome of political events in Canada such as provincial or federal elections, as well as other select economic or political events. We use all the polls that have released to give a bigger-picture view of where the parties are standing, who will win each electorate and the prospects of various coalition scenarios. To test this idea, we collected polls conducted in the last half of the calendar year before the primary (July to December) and built two models to predict how each candidate would ultimately do. | REUTERS / Rebecca Cook On Tuesday, voters in the United States of America will be going to the polls to determine their local, state, and congressional leadership. Election forecasting Prediction 2016. July 24: Florida moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Indiana, Kansas, Missouri from Safe to Likely Republican. One of the reasons for poll inaccurracy in the US election, besides some people for whatever reason don´t say the truth is, that the "winner takes it all" effect makes predictions even less easier. The 2020 presidential election odds tells a different story. US Elections 2016 News: NEW DELHI: This week, a Chinese monkey and an Indian fish predicted Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump will win the US elections tomorrow. The presidential election is now less than three months away. Click here. TRUMP WEIGHS IN ON COCKTAIL CLOWN. This is time-consuming and difficult. Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Betfair, and discover the latest news on political subjects from around the world: UK Politics US Politics Brexit More. 2020 Forecasted electoral votes earned by U. Every presidential election has its unique circumstances but this one is more extraordinary than most, not least in that it is taking place while the world struggles with a pandemic – and the United. Only Election Forecast provide predictions for the SDLP and DUP. (Advanced use only) For historic elections it might be desired to disable the sophisticated predictive models and use the simple UNS model only. The first one shows what the results will look like on election night, according to Hawkfish’s prediction. Assembly Elections News: Exit polls on Saturday predicted another big win for AAP in the Delhi assembly elections, with one giving it up to 68 seats in the 70-member house, a. Voters leave a polling station after voting in the Michigan primary election in Detroit, Michigan, January 15, 2008. TRUMP WEIGHS IN ON COCKTAIL CLOWN. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter , TJ in Oregon , Senator YE , ON Progressive ) Predict the popular vote. 2020 Election analysis. Advertisement. The main reason for this is the triangular contest with. The professor famous for accurately predicting the winner of every presidential election since 1984 has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump. It appears to be the most one-sided result since 1988, in Mr Trump’s favour. Forecasting: Prediction Markets versus Polls 897 Motivating the analysis in this article is a basic question: are polls or pre-diction markets more accurate in forecasting elections when the biases of both. It's how the people of Delaware vote in the primaries, or is that Iowa? I really don't think there is a good predictor of how the election will turn out. There are 28 parties contesting the election but only half of them are likely to get enough votes to win seats. Huawei going to predict the future? Nope, say company leaders when asked about Joe Biden winning US election failed to win the 1976 presidential election. Polls are a more reliable predictor of elections in Australia than elsewhere, experts say. Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted every election since 1984, using a model he developed alongside Soviet. Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Talks Sputter for New Fiscal Rescue Package in U. ) Robinson Meyer. Editor's note: An earlier version of this article stated the aforementioned PDP-11/70 was to be the first computer to predict the outcome of an election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2020 election forecast. First in 1984, calling it two years early before anyone even knew who Reagan's contender would be. Ron Elving; Attendees cheer at a campaign rally for President Trump last month in Hershey, Pa. It gets heavily hit in the elections, and does not have the power it needs. by unbeatenmueez(m): 11:17pm On Jan 02, 2015 God only knows the result ahead in every state of Nigeria. Singh has predicted that Trump will not be re-elected in November 2020. It was a local Election Day, and Brown was in the vicinity of a Twelfth Ward polling place. 2020 Democratic nominee? Joe Biden 97¢ NC. By Caroline Thorpe. So thin are résumés of NDP candidates in Quebec, so improvised is the party’s. SWPC is changing its Kp JSON product to include only 3 days of predictions. 7% and Hillary at 43. The 2020 Presidential Election in the United States is only around the corner. This article is more than 9 months old. However, we can only give you our prediction of the state of the race right now. See which combinations. A New Study Says Twitter Can Predict US Elections. And making predictions is the best way to test our theories and assumptions, and therefore an excellent way to learn. published: Wednesday, March 11, 2020 19:49 UTC. First in 1984, calling it two years early before anyone even knew who Reagan’s contender would be. Some bloggers put updates at the top, so everything is reverse chronology. India elections: Exit polls predict Modi win Today was the final day of voting in India’s national elections. 2008 Presidential Election Prediction – 5/22/2008. ES makes no predictions but offers up a very detailed election primer. 2011 Fall predictions The following maps are my final projections for the 5 provincial elections that occurred last Fall (2011). One of Nostradamus’s most important prediction for the year 2020 is based on the presidential elections in the United States which will take place at the end of this year: Trump might lose the elections and his seat will be taken by a younger candidate. Follow our US election 2020 blog below for all the latest on the Trump vs Biden race. Government World Dem. 5 million signatures certified before the February 2020 and/or March 2020 deadlines. Exclusive: More Americans predict Trump will win the presidential debates than Biden, USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows. using the horoscope for france 1958 to predict terrorism risks – and election results This was the original astrology forecast you read on this website way back on January 10th 2015 , two years previously, and it was based purely on that chart we have for France. Election watchers may be glued to every new national poll regarding this year's presidential election, but one researcher believes that analyzing Twitter may be a more accurate way to predict the. Researchshows the forecasting model built by RavenPack’s Data Science team correctly predicted the winning candidate in 4 out of the 5 last U. Delhi Election Exit Poll Results 2020 Updates: Confident of majority govt, says Manish Sisodia after exit polls predict AAP sweep, party set to win 55-68 seats Delhi Exit Poll Results 2020 LIVE Updates: Delhi deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia was quoted by India Today as saying that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will get a 'majority government. 26, 69 days ahead of Election Day, 460,894 people had requested absentee ballots, the N. Elections to the U. 10, 2011, since Hermain Cain suspended his campaign after. Fionnuala O'Leary Today, 20:50. -- Congress is most likely to certify. presidential election — and how stocks will react Published Mon, Aug 24 2020 12:59 AM EDT Updated Tue, Aug 25 2020 5:29 AM EDT Tanvir Gill. predictor synonyms, predictor pronunciation, predictor translation, English dictionary definition of predictor. A New Study Says Twitter Can Predict US Elections. Today Harry. The low response rate might partially be attributed to the failures of prior surveys to accurately predict election outcomes. But the GOP is fatally split and damaged. Shaheen UNH* Shaheen 53, Bolduc 37 Shaheen +16 New Hampshire Senate - Messner vs. Politics experts predict chaos for 2020 presidential election. mail : [email protected] 40 Under 40;. (After you control for a lot. History shifted into the Aquarian Age of change in 2008. By Jessica Kwong On 3/29/18 at 3:55 PM EDT. Some key points from our most up-to-date predictions: (D-Ariz. Re: 2015 Presidential Election Result (prediction). Due to COVID-19, we can't predict when traveling will be safe again, but go ahead and. It should be noted that the politics of things could change with the every changing dynamics of the US political atmosphere. The Sun’s Kerry Diotte offers CDs for the closest picks. The first one shows what the results will look like on election night, according to Hawkfish’s prediction. Walter Williams-Fiction!Summary of eRumor: This is an article, allegedly written by syndicated columnist Dr. Editor's note: An earlier version of this article stated the aforementioned PDP-11/70 was to be the first computer to predict the outcome of an election. "The Company had identified that a state-sponsored actor. By extrapolating that data point out to the 2020 election using a complicated algorithm, I can predict Jacinda Ardern will get the exact same percentage. Follow our US election 2020 blog below for all the latest on the Trump vs Biden race. Five Thirty Eight’s “now-cast,” which tracks real-time election polling data and attempts to predict the outcome if the election were held now, “can overreact to small swings in the polls. Polling for the 2016 Election Where Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump stand in the polls. House were held on November 8, 2016. This is our first presidential election since Electionarium was founded in 2017. At the moment, it looks like a GOP win, but very close. Get all latest news and updates on Delhi Lok Sabha Election 2019 dates, seats and Results. Current Predictions: Federal Election - Canada - October 21, 2019: 302/338: 89. Maureen Groppe Sarah Elbeshbishi. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. The Naive Forecast, Fischer and Murr did pretty poorly. Experts predict record voter turnout in 2020, but will it materialize? Voters wait to vote during the midterm elections in Hillsboro, Virginia on November 6, 2018. History shifted into the Aquarian Age of change in 2008. We've made it, everyone: these are the 2020 United States presidential election predictions. I predict that Sajid Javid, a Tory and the current Home Secretary, will be the next UK Prime Minister, the nation’s first Muslim to hold the top job. He has the full support of his party behind him. presidential election is right around the corner. There is a distinct possibility that they could form the second-largest political group in the parliament. Welcome to “Strike Out,” with me, your host, the all-knowing Chris Strikling. “I think there is a better chance Donald Trump does not run for re-election, than he is reelected,” Carville said. Election Dem. Let your computer predict Brexit, while you predict it won’t happen due to voter’s fraud. Table 1 reports the breakdown of respondents by their respective roles, whilst also highlighting the number of individuals who provided predictions of Conservative and Labour vote share and/or the number of seats in. Early 2020 election predictions. Loksabha, election, prediction, 2014, West Bengal, Parliament. Sauder’s election prediction markets are open to anyone who is a Canadian resident, at least 19 years of age, with a Canadian postal address and phone number. Posted 2 years ago by Press Release. Bernie Sanders warned Americans that the 2020 election could result in a “nightmarish scenario” of President Trump discrediting mail-in voting and refusing to leave office, but Fox News. tweets and incorrect predictions -- mostly incorrectly betting against Donald Trump. com 2019 Election Nowcast Predict 2024. Welcome to the Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets at the University of British Columbia. Five Thirty Eight’s “now-cast,” which tracks real-time election polling data and attempts to predict the outcome if the election were held now, “can overreact to small swings in the polls. The polls do not look good for him. 2020 Presidential Election David M Rothschild on Posted on March 12, 2018 Key data on this page includes: Prediction Markets ( Betfair , PredictIt , Hypermind ), Bookie ( OddsChecker ). Fri, Sep 04, 2020. The peace accord, signed amid great fanfare in 2015, has. Officials seek thousands of poll workers ahead of Election Day, fear shortage due to COVID-19 The pandemic has made recruitment "an even bigger concern," one expert said. Researchshows the forecasting model built by RavenPack’s Data Science team correctly predicted the winning candidate in 4 out of the 5 last U. Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Does the stock market predict the winner of U. Shaheen UNH* Shaheen 54, Messner 36 Shaheen +18 North Carolina Governor - Forest. Going on this, the basic metric of tweet volume could, at least in some measure, be used to predict the upcoming US Presidential Election. The new Predictions e book from John Hogue: the man who successfully predicted the Mumbai, India terrorist attacks which happened 26 November 2008, killing 173 people and injuring another 308 (p. Define predictor. Surveys serve as snapshots of the state of a race, not predictions of the final results. The sidebar at the right includes predicted probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 95% uncertainty intervals. We've made it, everyone: these are the 2020 United States presidential election predictions. With the YouGov poll tracker updated, we can expect Electoral Calculus General Election Predictions to reflect a narrower majority. The state’s political landscape, however, is witnessing a sea change in 2017, making the elections complicated for pollsters to predict. Predictions. It’s a winter election, and called to preempt what would have been a likely government defeat in a confidence motion on minister for health, Simon Harris. Tom Del Beccaro, author. -- Congress is most likely to certify. 2 months left. We use all the polls that have released to give a bigger-picture view of where the parties are standing, who will win each electorate and the prospects of various coalition scenarios. 9% on election day. Visit thestar. They are the authors of three of the nine forecast models that appeared in an election-themed symposium in the October 2008…. opinion polls are an unreliable. This is my prediction on election night, not necessarily if the election happens today (electoral map at the end) 1/7. Written by Brian Tashman / Right Wing Watch November 23, 2012 November 23, 2012. AND this year, the year which is going to end with less than a week : has given us ample reasons to prolong any. Exclusive: More Americans predict Trump will win the presidential debates than Biden, USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows. If you have been following my forecasts, you will know that I have developed a variety of prediction models which all predict something different. The head of public relations at the U. In the end, there can only be one winner. He has the full support of his party behind him. Table 1 reports the breakdown of respondents by their respective roles, whilst also highlighting the number of individuals who provided predictions of Conservative and Labour vote share and/or the number of seats in. mail : [email protected] If the neocons should win this election and retain control of congress, it would set an appalling precedent for future generations. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2020 presidential election. Now’s your time to put your reputation on the line and put in writing your predictions for the 2012 election. I see a very angry, split house, and Senate. IF YOU believed the pollsters, America. A round-up of world property news. Now’s your time to put your reputation on the line and put in writing your predictions for the 2012 election. Mulan’s Disney+ release is reigniting a boycott movement. They are offering cash prizes for the entry that gets closest to the national vote percentage and that best predicts the winners for each state and the. Exclusive: More Americans predict Trump will win the presidential debates than Biden, USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows. Think about. Today Harry. Trace the. Elections 2000: This page has descriptions of three formal predictions and a number of contextual explorations. 9% on election day. July 24: Florida moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Indiana, Kansas, Missouri from Safe to Likely Republican. Steve Vancore, partner at VancoreJones, leapt right into the “dangerous business” of predicting the mid. 2019 GE Predictor. I have no idea why it says 9 tossup. Officials seek thousands of poll workers ahead of Election Day, fear shortage due to COVID-19 The pandemic has made recruitment "an even bigger concern," one expert said. presidential elections, with a confidence of greater. 2017 Election 2015 Election 2010 Election. Apart from this, Cryptocurrency Futures and Prediction Markets show that trump will be reelected. polling, fundamental data, and prediction markets. And the models that claim to be able to predict elections based solely on the fundamentals — that is, without looking to horse-race factors like polls or approval ratings — have done especially. May 31, 2020 Last January 2017 we read with excitement the predictions of vedic astrologer Gurmeet Singh about Trump and after waiting almost 2 years, Mr.